The next tier

Erling Haaland (Norway) — around 12/1. The numbers are frightening — 16 goals in European qualifying — but Norway drew France and Senegal in Group I. If they go out in the group, Haaland’s three games will not be enough, and that group draw is exactly why he is a tier below the top two rather than alongside them. A high-risk, high-reward pick.

Lionel Messi (Argentina) — around 14/1. Likely his last World Cup, still Argentina’s key man, and the holders should go deep. The age is the question, not the talent.

Mikel Oyarzabal (Spain) — around 14/1. The main striker for the tournament favourites. Spain’s problem for backers is that the goals are spread around Yamal and the rest of a fluid front line, which can dilute any one player’s tally.

The value angle

The smart Golden Boot bet weights two things: a striker who takes his team’s penalties, and a team you expect to reach at least the quarter-finals. That is what makes Kane such a solid each-way play at 13/2 — penalties, a deep run on the cards, and a kind early draw. Among the longer prices, a frontman on a contender who is on set-pieces is worth more than a more talented player whose side you expect home after the last 16.

Each-way is the sensible structure here. The place terms on the Golden Boot mean a top finish still returns even if your pick is edged out, which softens the variance of a market that often comes down to one knockout tie.

One caution: the top-scorer market is one of the most variance-heavy bets on the board. A single injury or a quarter-final exit can end it. Stake it as the fun, longer-odds bet it is rather than a banker.