How our pre-tournament calls held up

We said Spain were the right favourite. They won it, so that one landed.

We also said France were the team nobody would want to face once the knockouts started. They reached the semi-finals, lost to Spain, then lost the third-place play-off to England. Dangerous, but not quite enough.

Argentina were our pick as the more interesting price for a bigger return. They reached the final and lost it by a single goal.

England, we thought, had a squad that should reach the latter stages. They finished third, beating Norway in the quarter-finals before losing to Argentina.

One other read aged well. We described Brazil’s price as a reputation bet rather than a clean form pick. They went out to Norway in the round of 16.

Where we got it wrong

Our outsiders were the weak part of this page. We floated the Netherlands as a long-range pick and they went out in the round of 32. Ecuador and Japan went out at the same stage. Colombia reached the round of 16 and no further.

Morocco were the exception. We said they deserved respect after their 2022 run, and they reached the quarter-finals before France beat them 2-0.

The pattern is worth being honest about. Our read on the top of the market was sound. Our attempt to find value further down it was not.

What the 48-team format actually changed

The bigger tournament meant the winner had to play eight matches, and squad depth mattered more than ever.

Heat, travel and quick turnarounds showed up in the knockout rounds, where several favourites laboured through tight games. The odds table never showed that. The pitch did.

Fine margins decided more ties than usual. The final was settled by a single goal, and the third-place play-off finished 6-4.

If you are already thinking about the next tournament, the four questions we used still apply:

• Can the team rotate without a major drop in quality?
• Can they control games in hot conditions?
• Do they have reliable penalty takers and a strong keeper?
• Does their route avoid too many elite teams before the semi-finals?

How our predictions did across the tournament

We published a call on every match. Across the 102 fixtures where we hold a snapshot taken before kick-off, we called 63 correctly, which is 61.8%. Our knockout calls were a good deal stronger than our group-stage ones.

The full record, including what a level stake on every one of those calls would have returned, is on our World Cup 2026 hub.

18+ only. Past results are a record of previous calls, not a guarantee of future returns. Please gamble responsibly.