Argentina vs Egypt prediction
Daniel Simpson
7 July 2026
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Primary prediction
Under 2.5 goals is our pick, mainly as this feels more like a tight knockout game than an Argentina goal rush.
- Argentina should have most of the ball, but Egypt are likely to sit in, slow the game down and make Messi’s side work for chances.
- Three of Egypt’s four games have been level after 90 minutes, so a 1-1 draw or 1-0, 2-0 Argentina win looks good to us.
Match preview
Why we’re betting on under 2.5 goals
We went for under 2.5 goals for this game. It feels likely for a match where Argentina should control things but Egypt will sit back.
Argentina are obviously the clear favourites. They won all three group games, had abit of a wobble against Cape Verde, but still have Messi in brilliant form. That Cape Verde game does matter though. Argentina needed extra time, and a lot of their players looked exhausted towards the end.
Egypt should be trying to take advantage of that, keeping tight at the back and making Argentina work for it. They got past Australia on penalties after a 1-1 draw, and three of their four matches have been draws after 90 minutes. It’s why we see potential in a low scoring win for Argentina or a low scoring draw.
Salah is the obvious danger for Egypt, but he hasn’t looked his best. Omar Marmoush is adding pace and direct running, but we expect Egypt will spend long spells defending deep and hoping for attacks on the break.
With Messi, Lautaro Martínez and Thiago Almada, Argentina should find ways to get chances, even with Egypt likely defending for their lives. A 1-0 or 2-0 Argentina score reads fit the main bet best, while still allowing for a draw after the 90 minutes.
Under 2.5 goals isn’t the most glamorous of bets, but to us, it looks more likely to come in. As an addition to a bet builder, it should bump the price up well enough.
Our best bets
-
Argentina Over 1.5 Goals Team Total Goals8/151.54 Unibet
Argentina Over 1.5 Goals needs Argentina to score 2+ goals
-
Argentina to Win Match result (1X2)4/111.37 Betfair Value
There is a case for Argentina to win at 4/11. We make it 72%, the book has it at 73%, so there is not much value baked into the price. Sensible stakes, as ever.
Prices show the bookmaker offering them and can move quickly — always check the live price before betting.
Higher risk / longshot angles
Draw Upside Angle
The draw at 4/1 is the saver here. Our model and the market are basically aligned, 20% against 19%. One to keep to small stakes.
Draw
We rate Draw at about 23%; the odds imply 19%.
Correct Score 1-1
We rate Correct Score 1-1 at about 11%; the odds imply 11%.
Group stage & head-to-head
Tournament form & head-to-head
Group stage standing
Where they sit in the group table
Group stage totals — position and record in the group.
Tournament form
Each team's last 5 tournament matches
Each team's last 5 finished tournament matches — not H2H.
Team news & lineups
Predicted line-ups
Updated: 7 Jul, 10:45
Predicted XI from our model — not confirmed yet; expect changes near kickoff.
Odds & prices
Where the prices sit
Prices as of Tue 7 Jul 2026, 13:18 · Odds move quickly — always check before placing · 18+ · BeGambleAware
| Bookmaker | Argentina | Draw | Egypt | Bet |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ★ Featured | ||||
| Betfred | 1/31.33 | 7/24.60 | 10/111.00 | Bet |
| Paddy Power | 3/101.30 | 7/24.75 | 10/111.00 | Bet |
| More prices | ||||
| Betfair | 4/111.37 | 4/15.10 | 11/112.50 | Bet |
| Matchbook | 4/111.37 | 4/15.10 | 12/113.00 | Bet |
| Smarkets | 4/111.36 | 4/15.20 | 11/112.50 | Bet |
| LeoVegas | 4/111.35 | 4/14.80 | 9/110.50 | Bet |
| Grosvenor | 1/31.34 | 7/24.50 | 10/111.00 | Bet |
| Unibet | 1/31.34 | 4/15.00 | 9/110.50 | Bet |
| Coral | 1/31.33 | 4/15.00 | 8/19.50 | Bet |
| Ladbrokes | 1/31.33 | 4/15.00 | 8/19.50 | Bet |
| William Hill | 1/31.33 | 7/24.60 | 9/110.00 | Bet |
| Casumo | 1/31.32 | 4/14.90 | 10/111.00 | Bet |
| 888sport | 3/101.30 | 7/24.50 | 9/110.00 | Bet |
| Betway | 3/101.30 | 7/24.75 | 10/111.00 | Bet |
| BoyleSports | 3/101.30 | 7/24.50 | 9/110.00 | Bet |
| LiveScore Bet | 3/101.30 | 7/24.75 | 9/110.50 | Bet |
| Sky Bet | 3/101.30 | 4/15.00 | 10/111.00 | Bet |
| Virgin Bet | 3/101.30 | 7/24.75 | 9/110.50 | Bet |
| BetVictor | 2/71.29 | 4/15.00 | 10/111.00 | Bet |
| Bookmaker | Yes | No | Bet |
|---|---|---|---|
| ★ Featured | |||
| Betfred | 6/42.50 | 1/21.50 | Bet |
| Paddy Power | 5/42.25 | 4/71.57 | Bet |
| More prices | |||
| Matchbook | 6/42.50 | 4/61.66 | Bet |
| Betfair | 6/42.48 | 4/61.66 | Bet |
| Coral | 6/42.45 | 1/21.50 | Bet |
| Ladbrokes | 6/42.45 | 1/21.50 | Bet |
| LiveScore Bet | 11/82.43 | 1/21.49 | Bet |
| Virgin Bet | 11/82.43 | 1/21.49 | Bet |
| LeoVegas | 5/42.30 | 8/131.60 | Bet |
| William Hill | 5/42.25 | 8/131.60 | Bet |
More markets
Cards, corners & more
Markets via SportMonks using bet365, BetVictor, Unibet and William Hill. Best available price shown per selection. 18+ · Odds correct at time of publishing.
Prices as of 7 Jul 2026, 13:19. 18+. Please gamble responsibly.
Core markets 6
Correct Score
Double Chance
Full Time Result
Half Time/Full Time
| Bookmaker | Selection | Best odds | Bet |
|---|---|---|---|
| bet365 | Argentina - Argentina Home/Home | 10/111.90 | Bet |
| bet365 | Draw - Argentina Draw/Home | 11/43.75 | Bet |
| bet365 | Draw - Draw Draw/Draw | 11/26.50 | Bet |
| bet365 | Argentina - Draw Home/Draw | 16/117.00 | Bet |
| bet365 | Draw - Egypt Draw/Away | 18/119.00 | Bet |
| +4 more selections at the bookmaker | |||
Goals markets 4
Goal handicap 1
Cards 6
Corners 7
More World Cup 2026
More from our World Cup 2026 coverage — the hub, group guides and the outright markets.