Netherlands vs Morocco prediction
Daniel Simpson
29 June 2026
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Full time
AET 0–0 · Pens 2–3
Morocco won (penalties).
Primary prediction
Netherlands to win at 11/8 is the one that stands out. We make it 41%, the book has it at 41%, so there is not much value baked into the price. Solid enough, but no gift at the price.
Value angle
If there is value on this one, it is Morocco to win at 3/1. The price looks slightly generous against our model. We make it about 28%, the bookies closer to 25%, and that gap is where the value sits. Worth a saver, no more.
Our best bets
-
Morocco to Win Match result (1X2)3/14.00 Smarkets Value
The 3/1 about Morocco to win is worth a second look. The numbers put it at 28% against the market's 25%, a touch bigger than it should be. One for a small, considered stake.
Prices show the bookmaker offering them and can move quickly — always check the live price before betting.
Higher risk / longshot angles
Draw Upside Angle
There is a quiet case for the draw at 9/4. The model and the odds are saying much the same thing, 31% against 31%. One to keep to small stakes.
Netherlands -1.5
Netherlands -1.5 needs Netherlands to win by 2+ goals. We make it about 19%; the bookies about 62%. Projected scoreline around 1-1. Projected scoreline around 1.3–1.1.
Morocco
We rate Morocco at about 31%; the odds imply 27%.
Correct Score 1-0
We rate Correct Score 1-0 at about 11%; the odds imply 10%.
Correct Score 2-1
We rate Correct Score 2-1 at about 8%; the odds imply 8%.
Netherlands to Win to Nil
Netherlands need to win the game without conceding. We make it about a 34% chance Morocco fail to score. We're projecting a tight Netherlands win, around 1-1. Projected scoreline around 1.3–1.1.
Group stage & head-to-head
Tournament form & head-to-head
Group stage standing
Where they sit in the group table
Group stage totals — position and record in the group.
Tournament form
Each team's last 5 tournament matches
Each team's last 5 finished tournament matches — not H2H.
Team news & lineups
Predicted line-ups
Updated: 29 Jun, 16:59
Predicted XI from our model — not confirmed yet; expect changes near kickoff.
Odds & prices
Where the prices sit
Prices as of Mon 29 Jun 2026, 18:38 · Odds move quickly — always check before placing · 18+ · BeGambleAware
| Bookmaker | Netherlands | Draw | Morocco | Bet |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ★ Featured | ||||
| Betfred | 5/42.30 | 9/43.20 | 9/43.20 | Bet |
| Paddy Power | 5/42.25 | 2/13.00 | 5/23.40 | Bet |
| More prices | ||||
| Matchbook | 11/82.42 | 9/43.20 | 5/23.60 | Bet |
| Betfair | 11/82.40 | 9/43.20 | 5/23.60 | Bet |
| Smarkets | 11/82.40 | 9/43.20 | 3/14.00 | Bet |
| Unibet | 11/82.35 | 2/13.10 | 5/23.40 | Bet |
| BetVictor | 5/42.30 | 2/13.10 | 9/43.30 | Bet |
| Coral | 5/42.30 | 2/13.10 | 5/23.40 | Bet |
| Ladbrokes | 5/42.30 | 2/13.10 | 9/43.30 | Bet |
| Casumo | 5/42.28 | 2/13.05 | 5/23.50 | Bet |
| LeoVegas | 5/42.28 | 2/13.05 | 5/23.50 | Bet |
| Betway | 5/42.25 | 2/13.00 | 9/43.30 | Bet |
| Grosvenor | 5/42.25 | 2/13.00 | 5/23.40 | Bet |
| LiveScore Bet | 5/42.25 | 2/13.00 | 5/23.40 | Bet |
| Sky Bet | 5/42.25 | 2/13.10 | 5/23.40 | Bet |
| Virgin Bet | 5/42.25 | 2/13.00 | 5/23.40 | Bet |
| William Hill | 5/42.25 | 2/13.00 | 9/43.30 | Bet |
| 888sport | 6/52.20 | 2/13.00 | 9/43.30 | Bet |
| BoyleSports | 6/52.20 | 2/13.10 | 9/43.30 | Bet |
| Bookmaker | Yes | No | Bet |
|---|---|---|---|
| ★ Featured | |||
| Betfred | 10/111.91 | 4/51.80 | Bet |
| Paddy Power | 8/111.75 | 10/111.95 | Bet |
| More prices | |||
| Betfair | 10/111.93 | 11/102.06 | Bet |
| Matchbook | 10/111.93 | 11/102.06 | Bet |
| William Hill | 10/111.91 | 10/111.91 | Bet |
| Coral | 5/61.85 | 5/61.85 | Bet |
| Ladbrokes | 5/61.85 | 5/61.85 | Bet |
| LiveScore Bet | 4/51.77 | 10/111.94 | Bet |
| Virgin Bet | 4/51.77 | 10/111.94 | Bet |
More markets
Cards, corners & more
Markets via SportMonks using bet365, BetVictor, Unibet and William Hill. Best available price shown per selection. 18+ · Odds correct at time of publishing.
Prices as of 29 Jun 2026, 18:40. 18+. Please gamble responsibly.
Core markets 6
Correct Score
Double Chance
Full Time Result
Half Time/Full Time
| Bookmaker | Selection | Best odds | Bet |
|---|---|---|---|
| bet365 | Netherlands - Netherlands Home/Home | 11/43.75 | Bet |
| bet365 | Draw - Draw Draw/Draw | 7/24.75 | Bet |
| bet365 | Draw - Netherlands Draw/Home | 9/25.50 | Bet |
| bet365 | Morocco - Morocco Away/Away | 9/25.50 | Bet |
| bet365 | Draw - Morocco Draw/Away | 6/17.00 | Bet |
| +4 more selections at the bookmaker | |||
Goals markets 4
Goal handicap 1
Cards 6
Corners 7
More World Cup 2026
More from our World Cup 2026 coverage — the hub, group guides and the outright markets.