Paraguay vs France prediction
Daniel Simpson
4 July 2026
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Primary prediction
- France need to win the game without conceding
- We make it about a 61% chance Paraguay fail to score
- We're projecting a tight France win, around 1-2
- Projected scoreline around 0.5–1.9.
Our best bets
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France -1.5 Goal Handicap5/42.28 Our estimate
France -1.5 needs France to win by 2+ goals
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France Over 1.5 Goals Team Total Goals3/101.30 888sport
France Over 1.5 Goals needs France to score 2+ goals
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France to Win Match result (1X2)1/51.20 Betfair Value
France to win at 1/5 is the one that stands out. We make it 81%, the book has it at 83%, so there is not much value baked into the price. Fair rather than generous, so keep stakes sensible.
Prices show the bookmaker offering them. "Our estimate" means no UK bookmaker has priced that market up for this game yet, so it's a guide rather than odds you can back today. Always check the live price before betting.
Higher risk / longshot angles
Draw Upside Angle
If anywhere, the value sits with the draw at 13/2. The model and the odds are saying much the same thing, 13% against 13%. One to keep to small stakes.
Correct Score 1-1
We rate Correct Score 1-1 at about 8%; the odds imply 7%.
France to Win by 3+ Goals
France to Win by 3+ Goals needs a three-goal winning margin. We make that about a 22% shot. Projected scoreline around 0.5–1.9.
Group stage & head-to-head
Tournament form & head-to-head
Group stage standing
Where they sit in the group table
Group stage totals — position and record in the group.
Tournament form
Each team's last 5 tournament matches
Each team's last 5 finished tournament matches — not H2H.
Team news & lineups
Predicted line-ups
Updated: 4 Jul, 09:40
Predicted XI from our model — not confirmed yet; expect changes near kickoff.
Bet builder ideas
Ready-made combinations to spark ideas. Prices are indicative — each selection is priced on its own, so the real Bet Builder price at your bookmaker will differ once they're combined.
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France -1.5 5/42.28Goal Handicap
Why this selection
France -1.5 looks around 44% on our model, which works out to roughly 2.28, on a projected scoreline near 1-2. No UK bookmaker has priced this market up for the game yet, so that's our own estimated price as a guide rather than odds you can back today.
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France Over 1.5 Goals 3/101.30Team Total Goals
Why this selection
France Over 1.5 Goals at 1.30 with 888. The bookies rate this at about 72%. That's a strong-favourite angle at a genuine price — we're not claiming extra value, just a confident lean — with a projected scoreline of around 1-2.
Indicative prices only — each selection is priced on its own, so the combined Bet Builder price at your bookmaker will differ once they're put together. 18+. Please gamble responsibly.
Odds & prices
Where the prices sit
Prices as of Sat 4 Jul 2026, 09:39 · Odds move quickly — always check before placing · 18+ · BeGambleAware
| Bookmaker | Paraguay | Draw | France | Bet |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ★ Featured | ||||
| Betfred | 14/115.00 | 11/26.50 | 1/51.20 | Bet |
| Paddy Power | 16/118.00 | 6/17.00 | 1/71.14 | Bet |
| More prices | ||||
| Betfair | 22/123.00 | 13/27.60 | 1/51.20 | Bet |
| Matchbook | 22/123.00 | 13/27.60 | 1/51.20 | Bet |
| Smarkets | 22/122.99 | 13/27.60 | 1/51.20 | Bet |
| Casumo | 16/118.00 | 13/27.50 | 1/61.17 | Bet |
| LeoVegas | 16/118.00 | 13/27.50 | 1/51.20 | Bet |
| Sky Bet | 16/118.00 | 6/17.00 | 1/71.14 | Bet |
| BetVictor | 16/117.00 | 11/26.50 | 1/61.17 | Bet |
| BoyleSports | 16/117.00 | 11/26.50 | 2/111.18 | Bet |
| Grosvenor | 16/117.00 | 6/17.00 | 2/111.18 | Bet |
| Unibet | 16/117.00 | 6/17.00 | 2/111.19 | Bet |
| LiveScore Bet | 14/116.00 | 6/17.00 | 1/71.15 | Bet |
| Virgin Bet | 14/116.00 | 6/17.00 | 1/71.15 | Bet |
| 888sport | 14/115.00 | 11/26.50 | 1/61.17 | Bet |
| Betway | 14/115.00 | 6/17.00 | 2/111.18 | Bet |
| William Hill | 14/115.00 | 11/26.50 | 1/61.17 | Bet |
| Coral | 12/113.00 | 6/17.00 | 1/51.20 | Bet |
| Ladbrokes | 12/113.00 | 6/17.00 | 1/51.20 | Bet |
More markets
Cards, corners & more
Markets via SportMonks using bet365, BetVictor, Unibet and William Hill. Best available price shown per selection. 18+ · Odds correct at time of publishing.
Prices as of 4 Jul 2026, 09:40. 18+. Please gamble responsibly.
Core markets 6
Correct Score
Double Chance
Full Time Result
Half Time/Full Time
Goals markets 4
Goal handicap 1
Cards 6
Corners 7
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