Portugal vs Croatia prediction
Daniel Simpson
30 June 2026
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Primary prediction
- We rate Both Teams to Score - Yes at about 55%; the odds imply 48%
Value angle
The value, if there is any, is over 2.5 goals at 1/1. The price looks slightly generous against our model. We make it about 54%, the bookies closer to 45%, and that gap is where the value sits. Fair rather than generous, so keep stakes sensible.
Our best bets
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Portugal to Win Match result (1X2)5/61.83 Betfair Value
There is a case for Portugal to win at 5/6. Our model and the market are basically aligned, 54% against 55%. Sensible stakes, as ever.
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Over 2.5 Goals Over/Under 2.5 Goals1/12.05 William Hill Value
We rate Over 2.5 Goals at about 54%; the odds imply 45%
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Portugal Over 1.5 Goals Team Total Goals10/111.91 BetVictor
Portugal Over 1.5 Goals needs Portugal to score 2+ goals
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Croatia to Win Match result (1X2)9/25.40 Betfair Value
Croatia to win at 9/2 is the one that stands out. We make it 18%, the book has it at 19%, so there is not much value baked into the price. Worth a small interest at the price.
Prices show the bookmaker offering them and can move quickly — always check the live price before betting.
Higher risk / longshot angles
Draw Upside Angle
If anywhere, the value sits with the draw at 11/4. The model and the odds are saying much the same thing, 27% against 27%. One to keep to small stakes.
Correct Score 2-1
We rate Correct Score 2-1 at about 8%; the odds imply 6%.
Croatia
We rate Croatia at about 24%; the odds imply 18%.
Correct Score 1-0
We rate Correct Score 1-0 at about 8%; the odds imply 8%.
Portugal -1.5
Portugal -1.5 needs Portugal to win by 2+ goals. We make that about a 29% chance. Projected scoreline around 2-1. Projected scoreline around 1.7–1.1.
Portugal to Win to Nil
Portugal need to win the game without conceding. We make it about a 35% chance Croatia fail to score. We're projecting a tight Portugal win, around 2-1. Projected scoreline around 1.7–1.1.
Group stage & head-to-head
Tournament form & head-to-head
Group stage standing
Where they sit in the group table
Group stage totals — position and record in the group.
Tournament form
Each team's last 5 tournament matches
Each team's last 5 finished tournament matches — not H2H.
Bet builder ideas
Ready-made combinations to spark ideas. Prices are indicative — each selection is priced on its own, so the real Bet Builder price at your bookmaker will differ once they're combined.
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Portugal Over 1.5 Goals 10/111.91Team Total Goals
Why this selection
Portugal Over 1.5 Goals at 1.91 with betvictor. The bookies rate this at about 49%. That's a strong-favourite angle at a genuine price — we're not claiming extra value, just a confident lean — with a projected scoreline of around 2-1.
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Over 2.5 Goals 1/12.05Over/Under 2.5 Goals
Why this selection
Over 2.5 Goals is our pick at 2.05 with williamhill. We make it around 54%, a shade bigger than the 45% the odds imply — so there's a bit of value in the price.
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Both Teams to Score - Yes 10/111.95Both Teams to Score
Why this selection
Both Teams to Score - Yes is our pick at 1.95 with williamhill. We make it around 55%, a shade bigger than the 48% the odds imply — so there's a bit of value in the price.
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Portugal -1.5 2/13.05Goal Handicap
Why this selection
Portugal -1.5 at 3.05 with unibet. Our model makes it about 29%. That's a strong-favourite angle at a genuine price — we're not claiming extra value, just a confident lean — with a projected scoreline of around 2-1.
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Both Teams to Score - Yes 10/111.95Both Teams to Score
Why this selection
Both Teams to Score - Yes is our pick at 1.95 with williamhill. We make it around 55%, a shade bigger than the 48% the odds imply — so there's a bit of value in the price.
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Portugal Over 1.5 Goals 10/111.91Team Total Goals
Why this selection
Portugal Over 1.5 Goals at 1.91 with betvictor. The bookies rate this at about 49%. That's a strong-favourite angle at a genuine price — we're not claiming extra value, just a confident lean — with a projected scoreline of around 2-1.
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Over 2.5 Goals 1/12.05Over/Under 2.5 Goals
Why this selection
Over 2.5 Goals is our pick at 2.05 with williamhill. We make it around 54%, a shade bigger than the 45% the odds imply — so there's a bit of value in the price.
Indicative prices only — each selection is priced on its own, so the combined Bet Builder price at your bookmaker will differ once they're put together. 18+. Please gamble responsibly.
Odds & prices
Where the prices sit
Prices as of Tue 30 Jun 2026, 10:39 · Odds move quickly — always check before placing · 18+ · BeGambleAware
| Bookmaker | Portugal | Draw | Croatia | Bet |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ★ Featured | ||||
| Betfred | 4/51.80 | 5/23.60 | 7/24.60 | Bet |
| Paddy Power | 8/111.75 | 5/23.40 | 7/24.75 | Bet |
| More prices | ||||
| Betfair | 5/61.83 | 11/43.65 | 9/25.40 | Bet |
| Matchbook | 5/61.83 | 11/43.65 | 9/25.40 | Bet |
| Smarkets | 5/61.82 | 11/43.65 | 9/25.40 | Bet |
| Coral | 4/51.80 | 5/23.50 | 4/14.80 | Bet |
| Unibet | 4/51.80 | 5/23.50 | 7/24.75 | Bet |
| Casumo | 4/51.78 | 5/23.40 | 4/15.20 | Bet |
| Grosvenor | 4/51.78 | 5/23.40 | 4/15.20 | Bet |
| LeoVegas | 4/51.78 | 5/23.40 | 4/15.20 | Bet |
| Ladbrokes | 8/111.75 | 5/23.40 | 4/14.80 | Bet |
| LiveScore Bet | 8/111.75 | 9/43.30 | 4/15.00 | Bet |
| Sky Bet | 8/111.75 | 5/23.40 | 4/14.80 | Bet |
| Virgin Bet | 8/111.75 | 9/43.30 | 4/15.00 | Bet |
| William Hill | 8/111.75 | 5/23.40 | 4/14.80 | Bet |
| 888sport | 8/111.73 | 9/43.30 | 7/24.75 | Bet |
| BetVictor | 8/111.73 | 5/23.60 | 4/14.80 | Bet |
| Betway | 8/111.73 | 5/23.60 | 7/24.50 | Bet |
| BoyleSports | 8/111.73 | 5/23.50 | 7/24.75 | Bet |
More markets
Cards, corners & more
Markets via SportMonks using bet365, BetVictor, Unibet and William Hill. Best available price shown per selection. 18+ · Odds correct at time of publishing.
Prices as of 30 Jun 2026, 10:40. 18+. Please gamble responsibly.
Core markets 6
Correct Score
Double Chance
Full Time Result
Half Time/Full Time
Goals markets 4
Goal handicap 1
Cards 1
Corners 7
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