Topping your group is worth more than ever in 2026. With 12 groups feeding a Round of 32, group winners get the cleaner knockout route and avoid an early collision with another seed. Here is our read on all 12, with the genuine question in each rather than just the obvious favourite.

Group A

Pick: Mexico

Home advantage and the strongest squad, but South Korea and Czechia are both capable of nicking it if Mexico stutter early. The real question is whether the hosts top it or settle for second. Group A guide.

Group B

Pick: Switzerland

The most open of the lot. Switzerland are the most reliable side, but Canada have home advantage and Bosnia carry a goal threat. A genuine toss-up for top spot. Group B guide.

Group C

Pick: Brazil

Brazil should win this comfortably. The interest is behind them: Scotland, Morocco and Haiti scrapping for the runner-up place and a third-placed qualifying spot. Backing Scotland to reach the Round of 32 is the sensible Scottish angle here. Group C guide.

Group D

Pick: USA

The hosts have the draw and the crowd, but Türkiye and Paraguay are awkward outs. Topping the group is far from a formality. Group D guide.

Group E

Pick: Germany

Germany are a clear cut above and should win this with room to spare. Ecuador are the likeliest to join them. Group E guide.

Group F

Pick: Netherlands

The Dutch are favourites but Japan are a live threat to top it — quick, organised and capable of beating anyone on the day. The best group-winner value of the lot might be here. Group F guide.

Group G

Pick: Belgium

Belgium have the names, Egypt have the talisman in Salah, and Iran are stubborn. Belgium to top it, but not without a wobble. Group G guide.

Group H

Pick: Spain

The tournament favourites should breeze the group; Uruguay are well placed for second. Little value backing Spain at the price they top this. Group H guide.

Group I

Pick: France

France to win it, with the real drama behind them: Senegal and Norway in a straight fight for the runner-up spot, and Haaland needing his side to escape a tough group at all. Group I guide.

Group J

Pick: Argentina

The holders are comfortably the best side. Austria are the likeliest to come second. Group J guide.

Group K

Pick: Portugal

Portugal are favourites but Colombia are good enough to top it and offer the better price to do so. One to look at. Group K guide.

Group L

Pick: England

England landed a kind draw and should win this. Croatia are the obvious team most likely to push us, with Ghana and Panama making up the group. Topping it sets up the smoother knockout route England will want. Group L guide.

Where the group-winner value sits

The clear favourites: Spain, Germany, Argentina, Brazil — are short to top their groups, so the value is in the open ones: Group B is a coin-flip, and Japan (F) and Colombia (K) are priced as second favourites despite being good enough to win their groups.